It appears online traders aren’t buying into the hype as a survey of online betting sites shows that Jeb Bush is the preferred Republican Presidential candidate for traders and not Donald Trump. Though Trump has a clear lead in polling, online traders are placing their money on Bush to grab the GOP ticket against all odds.
Bush leads the pack for the Republican Presidential ticket in online trading predictions with a convincing 40 per cent. The former Florida governor has beaten his next rival by a resounding 25 per cent, according to the results from PredictWise.
His Florida counterpart, Senator Marc Rubio, comes in second with 15 per cent while billionaire businessman Donald Trump is third with 14 per cent.
PredictWise works by aggregating six prediction markets where bets are placed on events in the fields of sports and even elections. According to PredictWise boss David Rothschild, these trading markets offer better and more accurate pictures of track records as compared to traditional polling.
Building the case for Bush, Rothschild said, "Jeb Bush has been steady at the top at between 45 percent and 40 percent, where he is now. He certainly hasn't fallen off noticeably."
At PaddyPower, an Irish bookmaker, Bush remains the clear favorite with 13/8 odds of clinching the GOP ticket. Spokesman Rory Scott, in support of the tables said, "Jeb Bush has drifted a tiny little bit, probably because of the rise of Trump, but he's still the favorite and he's been pretty stable."
Recent polls have shown Trump as the favorite in the Republican presidential ticket race. In polls by Real Clear Politics, Trump is on top with 22 per cent followed by Bush close in at second with 17 per cent. .
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday showed Trump at 30 per cent with a double digit lead over his closest rival. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee placed second with 10 per cent while Bush was tied at third with former neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 8 per cent each.
On the Democratic front, Hillary Clinton remains the clear winner with a convincing 72 per cent chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Vice President Joe Biden comes in at second place with 14 per cent, even though he is yet to formally announce his bid.
Trading tables traditionally offer more accuracy than polls which are often unstable and prone to error. The results of trading bets shows that traders are increasingly convinced that Bush would grab the GOP ticket and that Trump would fade away as voters become more serious on who they want as their next president.