While the price of unleaded gasoline has been steadily climbing, drivers could soon begin to see some relief at the pump, just in time for the summer driving season.
“Everything points to the notion that we are very close to a peak price of 2015,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service, a well regarded price tracker.
The national average price for a gallon of regular gas stood at $2.74 heading into the weekend, which is the highest so far this year. That’s over 25 cents a gallon greater than last month, yet still about 90 cents a gallon cheaper than a year ago.
The recent increase in prices is just due to seasonal shutdowns of refineries as they stop producing winter blend gasoline and start making the more expensive summer gasoline blend required to reduce smog and air pollution.
But now that the changeover is complete, supplies of gasoline should start to build.
“Prices have been strong enough that most of the refineries are hurrying to restart,” Kloza said.
The analyst sees summer gas prices falling to near $2.50 a gallon by July or August, and prices could fall sharply at the end of the year as cheaper winter blends start to hit the market.
“Post-Labor Day, a lot of places are going to see gasoline for $2, 2.25 a gallon,” he said.
Wall Street agrees.
“We believe that the recent price rally is premature,” wrote Goldman Sachs oil analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie in a report. They’re forecasting oil prices to revisit the October lows by later this summer.
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