Home Blog Page 151

America Now Leads World In Medical Marijuana Reform

What a difference a decade makes. In 2005 only California had well defined medical cannabis reforms on the books, thanks to the impact of the Gonzales v. Raich ruling which seemed to separate state and federal laws. Oakland’s 2004 Proposition Z, which made “adult recreational marijuana use, cultivation and sales the lowest [city] law enforcement priority”, went further in recognizing that marijuana prohibition was a waste of taxpayer resources. Many cities across the state took, either formally or informally, the same approach. But as of 2005 the state was along in its progressive, rational view on the subject.

marijuana-269851_640 Sophisticated marijuana farm in Colorado

Fast forward to 2015 and America’s stance on the subject couldn’t be more different. In the last 18 months nearly half of all states have had ballot measures looking to end the prohibition in some form. Politicians are increasingly comfortable talking about the issue and many are seeing it as smart politics to get behind reform initiatives – a stance that ten years ago would have been political suicide. 2015 marks the first time a majority – 53% – of Americans support marijuana’s outright legalization and 73% are in favor of its use for medical purposes, according to a recent PeoplePress study.

This stands in stark contrast to a 1969 poll which found only 12% of Americans were in favor of legalization.

The fear, confusion and anger over our misguided (and racially motivated) anti-drug policies has been replaced by typical American optimism and ingenuity. Marijuana entrepreneurs are opening cafes, dispensaries, farms and distribution networks (in state of course!) to capitalize on the positive changes. Hope is in the air for those states still saddled with antiquated laws and relief permeates those who have joined the 21st century.

Marijuana reform has put our country on the forefront of good health policy. It has made our neighbor to the North, Canada, appear foolish and backwards.

Our old prohibition policies are a textbook example of what happens when government meddles in our beautiful economy. People lose their lives. Criminals prosper. Resources are allocated to where they ought not to be allocated (our massive police forces).

When our elected officials steer instead of dictate our society runs more smoothly. When they actually listen to the will of the people and to our finest minds good things happen.

This is something they should all keep in mind for the upcoming election. Our country is founded on people with similar but not identical values. Tolerance of these differences are what make our nation great. The marijuana reforms we’ve recently seen and will hopefully continue to see show what happens when we stick to the values that make our nation so great.

The Biggest Band You’ve Never Heard Of: Kidz Bop

Bloomberg has a fascinating piece on Kidz Bop, the preteen kids band that has more top 10 Billboard singles than all but 8 mega artists.

Carefully selected by industry veterans, the band is in its fourth iteration. The current lineup of Bredia (13), Grant (12), Ashlynn (13) and Matt (11) have been together since 2014 and recently released Kidz Bop 27 to a number 3 position on Bloomberg. In 2013 the band accounted for a massive 18.8 percent of all children’s music units sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

Success like this requires near professional levels of both management and performance. Ashlynn is a notorious perfectionist who insists on doing take after take of radio promo snippets to make sure she gets it just right. Behind the kids are a fleet of handlers including two of their moms, one A&R guy, their manager, Kidz Bop’s COO and a full time teacher. It takes this level of support to maintain their Sirius XM radio show, their Youtube channel with over 18 million followers and their live tour (currently in full swing).

The idea for the group was something of an accident, the product of two former lawyers who got into direct marketed compilation albums. The duo, Balsam and Chenfeld, started by acquiring rights to 70s songs and putting them on compilations. They sold them via commercials aired on cheap TV channels like the Game Show Network. While moderately successful (remember Monster Ballads? It sold 3 million copies!) the pair stumbled on the Kidz Bop idea while raising their own children.

As their children grew up they became too old for Barney and Sesame Street yet too young, at least in their parents’ eyes, for Eminem and Britney Spears. The duo decided to record some songs with studio musicians and find 4 kids of similar age to their own to sing. The first album was a runaway success and the duo have been focused on Kidz Bop ever since.

They’ve even generated big name talent. Ross Lynch, star of Disney’s hit TV show Austin and Ally, is a Kidz Bop alumni and a talent sure to grace the big screen in the near future.

The future looks bright for Kidz Bop as well. Their mastery of both traditional and new media combined with a sustainable franchise means the business isn’t likely to slow down anytime soon.

Greece To Receive $5 Billion Bailout From Russia

Der Spiegel is reporting that Greece is poised to sign a gas deal with Russia as early as Tuesday that could put up to €5 billion into the depleted Greek coffers, according to a senior figure in the ruling Syriza party.

A senior Greek official said the move could now “turn the tide” for the debt-stricken country, who risks defaulting on substantial IMF loans and possibly exiting the Euro.

During a visit to Moscow earlier this month, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras expressed interest in building in a pipeline that would bring Russian gas to Europe via Turkey and Greece, according to Reuters.

Under the plan, Greece would receive an advance of up to €5 from Russia based on expected future profits of the pipeline. Greece’s energy minister said last week that Athens would repay Moscow after 2019, when the pipeline is expected to be in service.

Greek officials were not immediately available to comment on the Spiegel report.

Given this is Greece the probability of actual repayment is negligible, given the likelihood of a Greek default is near certain and €5 billion is not enough to change the mechanics of Greek debt sustainability.

Putin very well knows this.

The Russian leader is not acting out of the kindness of his heart, but merely making another calculated move, one which accomplishes two things:

Russia gets to preserve its dominance over the European energy market by extending the Blue Stream all the way to Austria while leaving Ukraine in a complete bargaining vacuum. With Hungary and Serbia all eager to transit Russian gas to the Austrian central European gas hub, Greece was the missing link for a landline transit. This is no longer the case

Just as importantly, suddenly Russia will seem like the generous benefactor riding to Greece’s aid in a time of need. This will in turn even further antagonize the Eurozone and further cement favorable public opinion.

Several weeks ago it was reported that Russia already has a higher approval rating among the Greek population than the Eurozone. Russia has now just won a critical ally for the very low price of just €5 billion, without having to restructure the Greek balance sheet should Greece have exited the euro. This also means that all future attempts to impose further sanctions on Russia by Europe will fail thanks to the Greek veto vote.

Russia is hot on the tail of China looking to divide the spoils of the collapsing Eurozone: Beijing has sought to invest in Greece’s infrastructure and bought up €100m worth of short-term government debt last week the Telegraph reported.

The only remaining question following yet another master stroke by Putin is what will Europe do, now that Russia has, in just under one year, not only “annexed” Crimea but fully drawn Greece (and the Mediterranean courtesy of Cyprus) into its sphere of influence.

Experimental Drone Does Everything Human Pilots Can Do

America’s drone programs took a major step forward on Friday after the US Navy announced the experimental X-47B unmanned aircraft demonstrator successfully carried out air-to-air refuelling from a tanker, the last of the milestone the X-47B project was intended to accomplish.

The test took place Thursday off the coast of Maryland. X-47B “Salty Dog 502” successfully plugged into a tanker aircraft, demonstrating that an unmanned, tailless and jet powered drone can not only take off and land on an aircraft carrier but can also refuel while airborne.

It had already been demonstrated that un-piloted aircraft can refuel air-to-air but it wasn’t known if a robotic combat-worthy carrier-based variant could do it too.

When the X-47B made its first debut, Captain Martin Deppe of the US Navy said “The X-47B will demonstrate how unmanned combat aircraft can operate from aircraft carriers […] extending the carrier’s reach and power projection from anywhere in the world.”

The X-47B had previously demonstrated that it could take off from – and, more notably – land on an aircraft carrier at sea. Such arrested landings have long been known to be one of the most difficult and dangerous feats for human pilots to master. US naval aviators are known to measure their manhood by the number of these “traps” in their logbook.

The original X-47B contract was awarded to Northrop Grumman back in 2004 by DARPA, alongside a similar land-based effort, the X-45. The US Air Force cancelled the X-45 but the Navy decided to carry the X-47B forward.

The two robot jets will now be retired, either to museums or the Pentagon’s famous desert aircraft boneyard in Arizona, which means there are more fearsome and highly top secret drones in the pipeline we don’t yet know about.

See Every Tree In New York City Mapped By Species

Brooklyn-based designer Jill Hubley just made your weekend 1000x cooler. Despite New York City being about as urban as urban gets, Jill’s latest project shows that even concrete jungles harbor leafy life.

The talented designer used 2005 tree census data to map all 592, 130 trees in the Big Apple, creating a colorful interactive map you can play with for hours.

The map shows the distribution of trees, color-coded by species, throughout New York City’s five boroughs and allows users to zoom all the way down to their specific building (she has yet to figure out a way to map your house plants, sorry!).

Hubley even surprised herself, writing:

I would’ve thought the trees throughout the city would be fairly homogeneous in terms of the percentages planted. Instead, Brooklyn has more London Plane trees than any other species (23.6%), Queens has a ton of Norway maples (18.3%), the majority of Manhattan’s trees are Honey locusts (23.3%), and Staten Island has a high percentage of Callery pears (24.8%). The Bronx has the most evenly distributed assortment of trees—Honey locust, Norway maple, and London Plane tree are all popular (11-13% each).

Scroll down for photos of the site and definitely check it out yourself at http://jillhubley.com/project/nyctrees/

Happy Citizen Earth Day NYC!

Left, London Plane distribution, right, Silver maple distribution.
SilverMaple

Whole of NYC
treemap

Twitter Claims To Move User Accounts For Privacy But Is It Being Honest?

Twitter claims to have taken drastic steps this week to shield it’s users from NSA spying, Americans.org has learned. In an update to its privacy policy on Friday Twitter created a two-lane service that treats US and non-US users differently. But is this what’s really going on?

If you live in the US, your account is still controlled by San Francisco-based Twitter Inc, but if you live anywhere else in the world your account is now handled by Twitter International Company in Dublin, Ireland. The changes also affect Twitter’s new live streaming app Periscope.

The significance is that Twitter Inc is governed by US law, it is obliged to comply with NSA-driven court requests for data. Data stored in Ireland is not subject to the same obligation.

The move comes after Facebook adopted the same tactic earlier this year. The change could also have implications for how advertising is handled in the future and is not necessarily good for users.

While the company gets to make headlines for protecting user privacy Ireland has the most relaxed privacy laws of any European country. This is important for any company looking to monetize user data through advertising. While data that is processed in Europe may in theory be beyond the reach of the NSA, the policy change makes for a convenient sidestep of future legislation which may make it more difficult for US-based companies to share data about European users with advertisers.

The reality is that the NSA has access to every single bit of data on every single user, regardless of where it is hosted. Its reach is unparalleled and its operations so sophisticated that few people can fully appreciate just how comprehensive their reach is. In short, they see absolutely everything. Twitter knows this which makes their claims about the NSA ring hollow.

The fact is that on social media, you and your information are the product. The company wants to ensure it is not limited by pesky laws – current or future – and so is taking steps to make sure it can continue to use you and your data as it pleases.

The changes kick in on 18 May 2015 and Twitter briefly explains them in a policy update post:

If you live outside the United States, our services are now provided to you by Twitter International Company, our company based in Dublin, Ireland. Twitter International Company will be responsible for handling your account information under Irish privacy and data protection law, which is based on the European Union’s Data Protection Directive.

If you live in the United States, the services will continue to be provided to you by Twitter, Inc., based in San Francisco, California, under United States law.

Of course avoiding the NSA or making advertising easier are not quite how Twitter explains the reason for the change:

As more people around the world use our services, we’ve expanded our operations to improve how we support our users globally.

Hollywood Rejoices As The Pirate Bay Reopens For ‘Business’

For the first time since it was raided late last year, Hollywood’s favorite website, The Pirate Bay, is allowing users to open new accounts again. Registrations had been closed for months due to security issues and to avoid flooding by fakes and spam.

After considerable downtime the site came back to life in late January but was still recovering from the raid. The notorious torrent site has gone through several hosting companies since its return but the site is now stable and once again sailing the high seas.

With many of the old moderators back on board the spam problems are also back under control. All this time, however, there was still one major feature missing from the site: the ability to register a new account. This meant new users were unable to publish new content.

This last barrier was removed a few hours ago when TPB formally reopened user registrations and can now be accessed at thepiratebay.org.

“The registrations remained closed as a security precaution. But now that the mods are back and stable, new accounts won’t flood the site with fakes,” Pirate Bay’s Winston was quoted as saying.

Executives from HBO, the RIAA and the MPAA were not available for comment but are no doubt displeased by the latest turn of events, despite numerous studies showing that piracy actually increases sales of media.

Wayback Playback: Vinyl Set To Outsell CDs On Record Store Day 2015

Shoppers will be hitting their local indie music shops today for Record Store Day 2015 yet they won’t be buying CDs or mp3s. Instead they’ll be buying vinyl and even cassette tapes according to recent data.

Shoppers are viewing the CD format seems as outdated with retro modes of music winning favor with younger, hipper fans — at least the ones who still buy music instead of just streaming it off the web.

There’s a long list of limited-edition releases being funnelled to independent record stores for Record Store Day — the biggest shopping day of the year for such shops. Hundreds of vinyl LPs, EPs and 7-inch singles are being offered, yet only a handful of CDs at most shops.

CD sales are dropping at a rate of 15 percent per year in each of the past three years. While vinyl record sales have been climbing since 2007 and saw a 52 percent spike last year, with 9.2 million albums sold in the United States, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

“A lot of our older shoppers still buy CDs, but we’ll have kids in here who say, ‘I haven’t bought a CD in five years.” Bob Fuchs, retail manager of Electric Fetus, an independent in the Minneapolis area retail manager, said.

Fuchs attributes Record Store Day to adding spark to vinyl’s massive resurgence. Vinyl, in turn, has helped indie stores not only stay in business but actually increase profits in recent years despite the popularity of streaming and downloading music sites.

Chris Brown, the man credited with the idea for the “holiday”, said the point was to prove that “things really weren’t as dire for independent record stores as the media made it out to be” in the early 2000s.

“Chain stores like Tower Records were closing in droves, but those of us at the independent level knew that most true music fans still wanted to get their hands on this stuff,” said Brown, who is VP of marketing at Bull Moose Records in Portland, Maine.

Brown said vinyl’s role in Record Store Day is common knowledge because “vinyl just sounds better.”

Even teen-centric clothing stores such as Urban Outfitters and Hot Topic have brought vinyl back to the malls that once housed record stores such as Musicland and Sam Goody. The trend looks set to continue as younger music listeners tune into the nostalgia and better sound that comes with vinyl.

Oklahoma To Execute With… Nitrogen?

Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin signed a bill into law Friday that allows the state to perform executions using nitrogen gas should lethal injection be ruled unconstitutional or become unavailable.

According to Fallin’s office, nitrogen causes a quick loss of consciousness and then death from lack of oxygen. Research conducted by Americans.org found no record of nitrogen ever being used in an execution in the United States.

“The person will become unconscious within eight to 10 seconds and death a few minutes later. In other words, a humane, quick and painless death,” said Rep. Mike Christian, one of the bill’s authors.

Robert Dunham, executive director of the Death Penalty Information Center, told the Washington Post that the same “painless” argument has been used before to advance the use of lethal injections.

“The hasty manner in which this bill sped into law reflects the same lack of care with which Oklahoma has managed its execution process historically,” he said.

Currently Oklahoma has put all executions on hold while the U.S. Supreme Court reviews its use of lethal injections. The state came under scrutiny last year when it took 43 minutes to kill convicted killer Clayton Lockett.

Fallin remains unwavering in her support for the death penalty.

“Oklahoma executes murderers whose crimes are especially heinous,” Fallin said. “I support that policy, and I believe capital punishment must be performed effectively and without cruelty. The bill I signed today gives the state of Oklahoma another death penalty option that meets that standard.”

The governor’s office said the first choice for execution is lethal injection, followed by nitrogen gas, the electric chair and the firing squad.

America: Home Of The Truly Innovative

Today the British government announced that Mole Solutions would be awarded funding for an underground transport system. The idea is to deliver goods on rails, buried below the ground, housed in a tunnel between 3 and 6 feet wide. The train carrying goods would be lifted above the tracks using magnetic levitation (maglev) and powered by electricity.

While the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in Britain have stumped up cash for a trial run in Northampton this is a great example of what makes our country so great.

Elon Musk, a modern day renaissance man, has proposed a very similar system that appears infinitely more thought out. His idea involves a similar system above ground, running parallel to already constructed highways. It would be self powered thanks to solar (impossible underground) and use negative pressure inside the above ground tunnels to reduce drag.

Amazon too is looking to solve the same transportation of goods problem using a fleet of drones which would not require any tunnels or tubes to be built and would instead deliver items to warehouses close to the end delivery point.

While we applaud Mole Solutions and wish them all the best their idea seems impractical given the cost of constructing subterranean railways. They have further problems given Britain’s age. Dig down 20, 30 or even 50 feet in England and you’ll find ancient graveyards, foundations and scores of other historical artefacts that require tedious excavation (in the UK you must by law report all such findings and allow the government to conduct thorough excavations before you proceed).

American innovation is second to none and the announcement today underscores the need to keep our markets competitive and open. By doing this we encourage the very best – in the world – to rise to the top with solutions to problems that make sound economic sense. We must be careful not to play to our competition and instead continue to do what we do best – compete and innovate.

While America Struggles NFL Gets Full Patient Health Records

We have every piece of technology we need to share patient health records, reports NFL Chief Information Officer Michelle McKenna-Doyle. Instead, the issue is bickering amongst the network of hospitals, doctors, HMOs, insurance companies and technology providers that all have a stake in your electronic health records.

While us regular Americans have our health compromised by greedy companies looking to lock down the market or drag their feet on integration to the direct detriment of our health, the NFL is blazing a trail. The NFL’s current system could in fact be used as the model for Electronic Medical Records going forward.

Right now team doctors and the league have access to player medical records on desktop, tablet and mobile phone. The records contain every checkup, doctor’s note, prescription, MRI and medical procedure the player has had going all the way back to highschool.

But it wasn’t easy, says McKenna-Doyle. The league has had to repeatedly bully various parties into opening up their systems. In one case commissioner Roger Goodell called a hospital CEO and personally admonished them for holding back a player’s medical records.

This shows just how many obstructions remain in the quest to share your medical records electronically and get the benefits of near perfect information regardless of which doctor you visit.

While we’re all for small government, this feels like an area where your elected representatives ought to get involved. Not everyone can have the commish call on their behalf but everyone is certainly entitled to the best healthcare possible.

Radioactive WWII Aircraft Carrier Found Off California

NOAA, working with private industry partners and the U.S. Navy, has confirmed the location and condition of the USS Independence, the lead ship of its class of light aircraft carriers that were critical during the American naval offensive in the Pacific during World War II.

Resting in 2,600 feet of water off California’s Farallon Islands, the carrier is “amazingly intact,” said NOAA scientists, with its hull and flight deck clearly visible, and what appears to be a plane in the carrier’s hangar bay.

Independence (CVL 22) operated in the central and western Pacific from November 1943 through August 1945 and later was one of more than 90 vessels assembled as a target fleet for the Bikini Atoll atomic bomb tests in 1946. Damaged by shock waves, heat and radiation, Independence survived the Bikini Atoll tests and, like dozens of other Operation Crossroads ships, returned to the United States.

While moored at San Francisco’s Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, Independence was the primary focus of the Navy’s studies on decontamination until age and the possibility of its sinking led the Navy to tow the blast-damaged carrier to sea for scuttling on Jan. 26, 1951.

“After 64 years on the seafloor, Independence sits on the bottom as if ready to launch its planes,” said James Delgado, chief scientist on the Independence mission and maritime heritage director for NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries. “This ship fought a long, hard war in the Pacific and after the war was subjected to two atomic blasts that ripped through the ship. It is a reminder of the industrial might and skill of the “greatest generation’ that sent not only this ship, but their loved ones to war.”

NOAA’s interest in Independence is part of a mandated and ongoing two-year mission to locate, map and study historic shipwrecks in Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary and nearby waters. The carrier is one of an estimated 300 wrecks in the waters off San Francisco, and the deepest known shipwreck in the sanctuary.

Why (Verizon) Cable Is A Dead Duck

News broke today that Verizon is launching FiOS Custom TV, a package of basic cable channels plus two ‘addon packs’ that will retail for $55. The news was heralded as Verizon heading off cord cutters.

The notable piece of the announcement was that of the 2 packs offered there were Sports and Sports Plus. Sports will carry ESPN, Sports Plus will carry regional sports.

This is interesting because analysts have been pegging ESPN’s value alone at about $35 per month and the regional sports channels as a group would be worth something similar.

If that’s true, Verizon is now essentially giving away other cable channels AND allowing their subscribers to take ESPN alone (basically – they include some other channels in there too but by pricing its just ESPN plus others for free).

Verizon is uniquely positioned, offering wireless and internet, so it needs less cable revenue than say Comcast or Dish or DirectTV.

The move to price such valuable channels so aggressively should be a big wakeup call for the cable industry. While it will probably slow subscriber loss in the long run how long will it be before people say $35 for ESPN on a TV isn’t worth it, instead wanting it on their phones and laptops instead (where they can Chromecast or screen share to a big TV)?

The cable business needs to figure out an online model for live sports immediately, before someone else comes over the top and reduces them to mere providers of internet access.

Former Goldman Banker To Be Clinton’s Treasury Secretary

Fresh on the heels of former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke landing at Citadel, the world’s most leveraged hedge fund, the revolving door continues as rumours were confirmed last night by Bloomberg that Hillary Clinton will name Gary Gensler as her pick for Treasury Secretary.

This should come as little surprise given recently this position was occupied by another Goldmanite, Timothy Geithner.

Gensler was most recently head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (2009 until 2014) where he allowed Wall Street firms to manipulate, rig, and otherwise abuse the US commodity market which he was supposed to supervise.

Many would argue Gensler was just simply protecting his former colleagues from civil or criminal investigation and prosecution. After all Gensler is far better known for not only having worked at Goldman Sachs for 18 years most recently as co-head of finance, prior to joining the CFTC, but for becoming the youngest ever Goldman partner, at the tender age of 30.

Gensler also holds the title of being the wealthiest member of the original Obama administration with 2009 reported net assets of between $15,533,000 and $61,745,000. From these massive number it appears that because he had been paid well at Goldman he now has a duty to his former employer: to keep Goldman (or any other Wall Street bank) off the hook of any regulatory investigation.

It will be interesting to see how Clinton’s “grass roots” campaign centered around Hillary as everyday American spins this choice.

Hair Regrowth Study Suggests Skin Cells Communicate

Bacteria communicate among themselves. A chemical system called ‘quorum sensing’ allows those single-celled bugs to tell when their numbers have multiplied enough to mount an effective attack or emit glowing light.

The team of scientists who learned about this brainless bacterial coordination some 20 years ago has uncovered new evidence indicating animal cells may speak the same lingo.

Their findings were revealed through an unexpected approach: plucking hairs. When a researcher at the University of Southern California and his colleagues plucked 200 hairs from mice in a specific pattern in a confined area, ensuring that many neighboring hairs were pulled, more than 1,000 hairs grew back in their place, including some beyond the plucked region. The results were published April 9 in the journal Cell.

The study begged the question: Why don’t the same number of plucked hairs grow back to replace their fallen kin? It appears that hundreds of affected hair follicles released chemical signals relaying distress. Then, once enough neighboring cells sent out similar chemical flares, sensors on the skin detected the messages and took collective action: Incredibly, those messages induced the regeneration of as much as five times the amount of replacement hair.

If ‘quorum sensing’ was behind this action, as the research suggests, it would represent some of the first proof to date that this phenomenon doesn’t just occur in bacteria cells but also animals cells.

“It’s a pretty new field, but if cells can signal to bacteria in the gut, as research has shown, you would think they could signal amongst themselves as well,” so these findings make sense, says Julia van Kessel, an assistant research scientist at Indiana University Bloomington.

Just don’t go thinking the hair plucking reaction means that if you start to go bald, plucking a few surrounding hairs will trigger a massive resurgence or that irritating the scalp will be the key to luscious locks, according to lead author Cheng-Ming Chuong, a professor of pathology at USC.

To combat male pattern baldness, which is triggered by genes and hormones and involves changes in the hair follicles themselves, much more study would need to take place before researchers can understand how or even if these findings can be translated into a treatment.

Still, something was clearly occurring beyond individual hair regeneration, Chuong says. This should give hope to all the follicle challenged men out there.

An iPhone 6 Hype Reality Check

The internet was abuzz today over star Apple analyst Gene Munster’s forecast for the iPhone 6. Munster is known to have a great read on Apple and we thought it worthwhile to point out a few interesting items from his note this morning.

First, his assumptions about foreign market are probably on the money. But it isn’t because the device is ‘revolutionary’ – it’s because, finally, it has a large screen! In looking at phone trends over the last 5 years, screen size has done nothing but increase while Apple has stayed true to more or less the original sized screen.

We believe this will be the primary driver of the iPhone 6’s success and will account for the sales growth Mr. Munster predicted in his forecast. Apple is tapping into pent up demand for this format, plain and simple.

What we don’t believe is in Apple doing anything notably better anywhere else. Siri is still an also-ran to Google’s voice search and we view this is the biggest area for innovation as smartphones move forward. Screen real estate will stay approximately the same and even Samsung’s Edge line, with curved displays, don’t much change this.

People’s screen are already filled with their maximum surface area of apps and little will change here.

Google voice search changes this, but removing the need to interface with apps beyond one single app on the home screen. Siri does this to some extent too but Google’s product is significantly more powerful than Siri, having an intelligence beyond just ‘open app X’.

Google also has an advantage shown most clearly in the latest release of Android (5.0 Lollipop). The Cards concept, first surfacing a couple of years ago in Google Now, will be powerful for phone as they move forward into more general purpose computing devices.

Cards provide an intuitive way to multitask but are also very powerful when paired with Google’s big data engine. Google Now surfaces cards to remind you of things based on your location, the route you travel to work and other data driven events.

Apple has no such data backend, limited analytical capacity compared to analytics juggernaut Google and has not seemed to innovate much in this arena.

So while Munster may be correct in his sales forecast the cause is not as huge as he claims. Google’s Android system, increasingly fortified with difficult to replicate data and analytics driven services, will continue to maintain share and be a significant player in the mobile space.

Apple will continue to stick to its strengths of design, exclusivity and premium pricing and enjoy their captivity creating eco-system all the way to the bank.

But don’t expect anything to materially change here – each side has lots of weapons and a clearly defined strategy.

Who will get pinched? Expect Microsoft and Blackberry to be increasingly marginalized. Anyone not competing on one of these two platforms will be driven out of existence. Also look for the number of large, high end Android phone manufacturers to decrease. The market can’t sustain this many hardware companies running the same suite of Google software so expect this number to drop (Sony, LG we’re looking at you).

Microsoft Shows Sneak Peak Of Windows Phone 10

And it lands dead on arrival. The stakes are high for the software company as it battles attacks on its home market of the desktop PC from fellow monopolist Google and their Chromebook offerings.

Having secured no share of the mobile market (less than 5% by generous estimates) Microsoft is looking to ‘universal apps’ to drive adoption of its new generation of mobile phone operating systems. Universal apps are designed to be written once and then run on desktops, tablets and smartphones. One of the key reasons blamed for Microsoft’s lack of progress in the mobile market has been a lack of compelling apps. Microsoft’s platform lacks users which means developers refuse to invest in building apps for it. Users refuse to adopt the Microsoft operating system because their favourite apps aren’t on it. It’s a viscous circle.

Microsoft’s newest offering, shown in a sneak peak to developers today, allows them the ability to write once and run on any Microsoft Windows 10 product. Which sounds like the perfect solution to all that ails the company from Redmond.

But despite technically being able to do as promised the preview shown today had two critical flaws.

First, it complicates user interaction. On each device there is a specific way users interact with apps – a keyboard on a laptop, fingers on a tablet and thumbs on a smartphone. The way each looks and responds is driven by the way you interact to it. Microsoft’s approach, shown today, combines user interaction into a one size fits all model. This means less pain for developers but more pain for users. Things, such as menus and buttons, are not where users expect them to be. Actions, like swiping and pinching, don’t work as expected either. This means its a major headache for users to, well, use the Microsoft apps.

Second, there is no getting around different screen sizes. Because of this developers must still create 3 sets of user interfaces for their apps, one for each of desktop, tablet and mobile. This still creates three times the work and so the savings in development time aren’t as significant as developers would like given the small (and shrinking) base of Microsoft devices.

Overall today’s preview can be viewed as a disappointment and does not bode well for the company in the near future. We’ll be covering this story as more previews hit in the coming months and look more into the impact this will have on Microsoft’s market position and business prospects.

TGIF: Google Has A Bad Day Amid A Bad Week

Search and mobile phone monopolist Google must be thankful it’s Friday. The company, already having a bad week due to the EU announcing its intent to prosecute the giant over abuse of dominant position in search, suffered another two blows before the week was through.

The Googley Googlers were greated not only by their private VIP buses this morning, but also by the French government looking for details on its magic search algorithm.

Specifically the upper house of parliament yesterday voted to support an addition to a draft economy bill that would require search engines to display at least three competitors on their homepage.

But it gets worse: they are also asking any search company to reveal the workings of their search ranking algorithms to ensure they deliver fair and non-discriminatory results. Given that Google has an approximately 90% share of the search market in France these amendments, although not naming any companies, are aimed squarely at Google.

But that wasn’t all that went wrong for Google today!

Senior VP for Search, Amit Singhal, attempted to argue that although Google is the most-used search engine, it is not abusing its dominant position. He then provided a number of pretty graphs that he claimed show competition was actually increasing.

One of those claims was that “when it comes to news, users often go directly to their favourite sites. For example Bild and The Guardian get up to 85 per cent of their traffic directly. Less than 10 per cent comes from Google.”

To which The Guardian’s audience editor, Chris Moran, tweeted: “Just to be absolutely clear … this is nonsense.”

Upon further review of his data, Singhal retracted his earlier claim (along with a similar claim about Yelp) because he had ‘forgotten’ to include Theguardian.com, the site’s main domain name, along with theguadian.co.uk (its secondary, UK specific domain).

Google no doubt heads into the weekend with a good deal on its mind, along with being thankful the week has come to a close.

Banker Admits Investment Banking Fees Terrible For Companies

Ed Clark, former CEO of Canadian banking behemoth TD, stated this morning that he would not allow banks to ‘skin us’ on fees related the upcoming IPO of his company Hydro One.

The comment should give pause to any company working with investment bankers given Mr Clark’s former employer consistently ranked as one of the top investment banks in Canada and was a respected issuer of debt here in America.

“This thing will sell itself. I am not going to let them skin us,” Clark, chair of the Premier’s Advisory Council on Government Assets, said on Thursday about the government’s decision to initially sell a 15 per cent minority stake in the provincially owned distribution and electricity transmission company.

Mr Clark’s comment means the fees for the planned $2 billion-$2.25 billion IPO will not be the standard 4%-5% that underwriters extract from an initial public offering.

“If not, I will do it myself,” said Clark when presenting the advisory council’s final report on improving performance and unlocking value in Ontario’s electricity sector.

This is a valuable lesson to both company owners and investors alike. Etsy’s nearly doubling yesterday underscore that if a company is good and in demand, bankers do nothing but reap extraordinary fees for creating little value. In Etsy’s case you could even argue they destroyed it by pricing it far too low.

This is why Google did its own IPO when going public. It’s interesting that in a world where everyone tries to copy Google nobody has gone this route again. All the technology is in place and the process can be managed by ex-bankers to ensure success while avoiding the ridiculous fees they reap.

A lesson for investors is that the more bankers you see involved in a deal the less attractive the issue is. Clearly Mr Clark is of the same opinion and he’d be one to know.

Why American Auto Companies Shouldn’t Fear The Chinese

News broke this morning that Chinese automaker Geely is coming to America. Eventually. With one single vehicle, a small crossover SUV based on a shared platform with Volvo. Production is slated to begin in late 2016 and the model could hit American shores in mid 2017.

American automakers are very aware of this and while it may come as a surprise to the public they would have seen this coming. The Volvo deal has been no secret since it was signed and it makes sense for a cheap Chinese car to enter the lucrative US market.

But American automakers should not be worried. They will have a host of competitive products in an industry with very little competitive advantage. They know this game and have been playing it for nearly 100 years and 3+ generations of executives.

And unlike throwaway items – napkins, party favours, fast fashion and consumer electronics cars must be built to last. The Chinese have a poor history with this, especially in industries that are well established and have sophisticated players with elaborate marketing machines and production facilities. As buyers of Chinese products know quality is not exactly job 1 for team China and this brand will be difficult to overcome.

Unlike the Japanese products that hit our shores in the 70s, Chinese products will face an extremely tough battle in a market that is well prepared for their arrival. Matters will be further complicated for the Chinese because the strategy shift to international markets does not align will with creating competitive advantage. Shifting into different geographic markets tends to reduce competitive advantage in cases where the product has no intellectual property protection. Vehicles are a textbook example of this sort of product, as opposed to the iPhone which enjoys both intellectual property and brand advantages already.

The Chinese will also need to figure out a dealer network, in an age where Americans will increasingly buy their cars online from the likes of Tesla.

China Has Built Military Airbase In South China Sea

Brand new satellite images published on Thursday show China has nearly completed building a military airstrip in the contested South China Sea’s Spratly Islands and is likely planning another. These hostile moves have been greeted with concern in the United States and Asia.

IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly said the March 23 pitcutres from Airbus Defence and Space showed work on the runway on reclaimed parts of Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands, which China contests with its neighbours the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

The magazine said images from earlier in March showed reclamation work on Subu Reef in the Spratlys creating landmasses that, if joined together, could create space for another 3,000-meter airstrip. This length of runway is well suited to military aircraft such as fighter jets, bombers and reconnaissance aircraft.

Other images suggested China was working to upgrade another airstrip to military length in the Paracel Islands further north in the potentially energy-rich South China Sea, a vital shipping route through which $5 trillion of trade passes every year.

The troubling report comes a day after the U.S. military commander for Asia, Admiral Samuel Locklear, said China, which claims most of the South China Sea, could deploy radar and missile systems on outposts it is building that could be used to enforce an exclusion zone should it move to declare one.

Senator John McCain, chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, called the Chinese moves “aggressive” and said they showed the need for the United States government to act on plans to move more military resources into the important Asian region and boost cooperation with Asian countries worried by China.

“When any nation fills in 600 acres of land and builds runways and most likely is putting in other kinds of military capabilities in what is international waters, it is clearly a threat to where the world’s economy is going, has gone, and will remain for the foreseeable future,” he told a public briefing in Congress.

The latest intelligence, of which the U.S. is keenly aware of, show the need for improved force presence in the region and increased cooperation. China’s ageing population, recent slowdown in growth and convoluted governance system create conditions that are textbook precursors to a diversionary war. Regimes in such a position will often start a war over a small, insignificant piece of land to divert the attention of the population away from troubles at home and rally the country around nationalistic values.

Given China’s tight censorship of media and limited personal freedoms it has all the tools to carry out such a war successfully.

Rare Oarfish Washes Ashore On New Zealand Beach

An extremely rare Oarfish washed up on a beach at the mouth of Otago Harbour, New Zealand this morning. The impressive specimen was 3 metres long – medium sized for the species. Although rare other specimens have been known to reach lengths of over 8m.

The fish are long-distance ocean drifters and are usually found hanging in vertical position in the upper 300m of the water column. Healthy oarfish are known to wash up on beaches and are sometimes found near the water surface – so may be the origin of some “sea monster” myths.

Urban legend suggests Oarfish larger than 1.5m are known to shorten their length by biting off their tail but this is untrue. The fish has no teeth, making biting its own tail off impossible.

oarfish head

oarfish

Sweden Finally Willing To Question Wikileaks Founder

In what seems like an obvious move, Swedish prosecutors agreed late Thursday to interview Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. Mr Assange has long welcomed their questioning yet refused to leave his current residence, the Ecuadorian embassy, for fear of being extradited to one of the many countries looking to imprison him for his role in leaking secrets.

Assange has been holed up in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London since June 2012 to avoid extradition to Sweden, where prosecutors want to question him about strange 2010 allegations that he ‘raped’ one woman and sexually molested another. Mr Assange has not been charged in either incident, raising further questions as to the motives behind the extradition request.

While the allegations carry a salacious connotation, in Sweden they have very different legal meanings than here in the States. The allegations relate to not using a condom while having sex, a far more minor offense than the headline charges would seem to indicate. It would also be trivially easy to construct such fake allegations.

According to Assange’s lawyer, Thomas Olsson, Swedish prosecutors will now have to reach out to British and Ecuadorian authorities to request permission to conduct the interview at the embassy.

The prosecutors previously balked at coming to Britain to question Assange, raising serious questions as to their motives in the matter. It would seem like a straightforward solution to simply travel to London and conduct the interview there.

The reason for the sudden change of heart is that some of the alleged crimes will be subject to a statute of limitations in August 2015, according to a statement from Marianne Ny, the director of public prosecutions.

Ny attempted to explained the strange logic behind the Swedish authorities’ change of approach in her statement.

“My view has always been that to perform an interview with him at the Ecuadorian embassy in London would lower the quality of the interview, and that he would need to be present in Sweden in any case should there be a trial in the future,” Ny said.

“This assessment remains unchanged. Now that time is of the essence, I have viewed it therefore necessary to accept such deficiencies to the investigation and likewise take the risk that the interview does not move the case forward, particularly as there are no other measures on offer without Assange being present in Sweden.”

The Australian national has not been charged and denies the claims. Assange has said he fears Sweden would extradite him to the United States, where he could face the death penalty if he is charged and convicted of publishing government secrets through WikiLeaks.

Ecuador granted Assange political asylum in 2012.

Coast Guard Makes Record Drug Seizure

Representatives from the U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Navy and Royal Canadian Navy gathered on a San Diego dock Thursday, to announce the largest drug seizure in agency history – more than 14 tons of cocaine. The announcement came as officers unloaded the seized shipment from the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Boutwell.

The drugs, with a nominal street value of $424 million, were captured in 19 separate seizures in drug transit zones near Central and South America.

The 28,000 pound seizure was so large that the drugs had to be taken off the ship by a crane and a conveyor belt.

The Coast Guard says the current fiscal year, which ends on Sept. 30, has already had the most seizures since 2009. The amount of cocaine taken for the fiscal year so far is reported to be over 28 tons, worth more than $848 million. Authorities say over 100 smugglers have also been apprehended.

The Coast Guard said in one incident, more than 10 tons of cocaine were confiscated from a single freighter in what is called the largest maritime drug interdiction in the eastern Pacific Ocean since 2009.

Safra Catz: America’s Best Female CEO?

American female CEOs get a lot of hype. Marissa Mayer attracts attention for the smallest of moves (read: acquisition of Sumly, a mashup with no intellectual property, no revenue and no users). Meg Whitman, like Ms. Mayer, fusses over logo design choices while her company, HP, burns. Ms. Whitman’s tenure at Ebay marked the transition of the company from internet bellweather to also ran. Carley Fiorina, an unmitigated disaster of a CEO while at HP, is rumoured to be running for President and constantly in the news.

Lost in the flash of female celebrity CEOs is Safra Catz, co-CEO of software juggernaut Oracle. Known for keeping out of the headlines (aside from her massive compensation), Ms. Catz has presided over one of the most successful female careers in modern history.

Often cited as the highest-paid female executive, with a reported compensation of $51.7 million in 2011, Catz’s savvy dealmaking skills have led to acquisitions in the billions. Righthand woman to Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, she has overseen major M&A opportunities, including the $10.3 billion “hostile” acquisition of PeopleSoft and another $7.4 billion deal for Sun Microsystems.

Not only is she successful, she is also high in character. In Sept. 2013 Catz rejected her $717,000 bonus over Oracle’s poor financial performance. This stands in stark contrast to Ms. Mayer who once flew cupcakes on a private jet to a Sex and the City screening party.

America has plenty of fine female executives and its time the ones delivering results get the attention they deserve.

Why Loretta Lynch Isn’t The Attorney General Yet

It has nothing to do with her and everything to do with our dysfunctional system of governance. Ms. Lynch is highly qualified, well regarded and yet sits in waiting due to petty political bickering. For context, Lynch’s wait to be confirmed is two times longer than the past 6 attorney generals combined! Eric Holder’s nomination by contrast took just 8 days.

After a five month wait the nomination has not even been heard and considered by our elected officials.

Specifically, Ms. Lynch’s nomination remains stalled while senators fight a partisan war over abortion, a fight that has nothing to do with her. Democrats object to a human-trafficking bill that contains the so-called Hyde Amendment, restricting government spending on abortion.

Rather than passing by acclamation, as it would have done without the abortion controversy, the bill has been blocked by a Democratic filibuster. Lawmakers are looking for ways around the impasse that will placate the pressure groups up in arms over the Hyde language. Until that agreement is reached, Mr. McConnell won’t bring up the Lynch nomination.

Regardless of your political leanings its clear Ms. Lynch should get immediate floor consideration. Write your elected officials and ask them just what they’re doing, because it certainly isn’t governing effectively.

Big Oil Is Losing Its Grip On The Auto Industry

A revolution is coming and so far big oil doesn’t seem to see it coming. Producing oil via fracking has largely been credited with the recent downtrend in oil prices enjoyed by today’s motorists. But that’s not the whole story.

While rising supply has definitely been a factor, others are at play as well. Start with the fact that oil demand has remained flat for the last decade. This is largely thanks to federal regulation on engine consumption of gas and improving technology which has resulted in higher miles per gallon figures for a full decade now.

Then take electric vehicle, whose sales are up 4x in the last 4 years – a scary trend for any petroleum producer. Combine this with battery costs that are dropping just as fast as solar panel costs and you’ve got the making of a long term shift in demand away from fossil fuel powered vehicles in favour of electrics.

The icing on the cake is fuel cell vehicles, after years of disappointment, are finally rolling out of the lab and onto the streets to positive reviews.

While an abundance of oil may well be influencing prices the story isn’t just supply – demand is dropping too, at a faster pace than at any point in history. We’re on the verge of a seismic shift in consumption patterns that will forever change the way we think about driving. The gas station as we know it may be a thing of the past within 15 years.

Google Helps Homeless Take Cashless Payments

No longer will people be able to walk past homeless asking for money and pat their pants saying “sorry, no cash!”. Google has teamed up with Real Change to offer a barcode based payment system for street vendors.

Starting yesterday homeless newspaper vendors in Seattle will offer increasingly cash-free customers the ability to pay for online versions of the newspapers they sell using their smartphones. Seattle’s Real Change weekly newspaper has partnered with Google to create an Android and iOs app that lets customers scan a barcode to purchase a digital version of the paper, priced at $2.99 (as opposed to the print price of $2).

The app took two years to develop, and was started by a Google employee who volunteered with the Real Change organisation after hearing of its problems keeping sales up in the face of street consumers who increasingly carry no cash or change. Google will not be profiting from the app.

Google PR flack Meghan Casserly said that the Real Change app represents the first implementation of a scan-to-pay app of this type in the United States. In South Africa the similarly-styled The Big Issue operates such a scheme.

Real Change founder Harris said “This app will help our paper survive in the digital age, when fewer people have ready access to cash and more people prefer to read news content on their mobile devices,”

Expect to see this technology in a city near you should it catch on.

Why Square Is Now Doomed

Formerly red hot payments company Square is now in the payday-loans-for-small-business space, to the tune of $100 million. This is a troubling development that does not bode well for the company. We learned today that the company has issued over 20,000 payday style loans to small businesses who use its payment processing system. This is not a good sign for the once promising company.

There are 3 key reasons why Square is now in trouble.

(1.) Durable competitive advantage is obtained by focusing on narrow markets and dominating them. By getting into an adjacent market Square loses focus and makes it much harder for itself to gain competitive advantage in the payments space. The effects of this will be felt in both margins and market share in the coming months / years.

(2.) Square open itself to a host of issues by issuing high risk loans to small businesses, chief amongst them default. Businesses have plenty of avenues for credit already. Those that do not have credit are likely too risky to deserve it. Square is inexperienced in lending and is likely being too generous. A larger issue is the potential for accounting malfeasance this introduces. What was previously a relatively simple business is now complicated by the valuation of receivables issued to low quality borrowers. This makes valuing the company very difficult

(3.) Jack Dorsey is a celebrity CEO who has a track record of failing to deliver. Both these characteristics should give investors cause for concern. Strategic CEOs are capable of juggling both the vision of the business and the operational details to deliver results. Dorsey seems incapable of doing both yet notoriously stretches himself thin.

These factors, combined with huge players like Apple getting into the payment space paint a bleak picture for Square going forward.

The United States Is Losing The Drone War

Ever heard of DJI drones? No? Well 70% of the American drone market has. Founded in 2006 by Chinese entrepreneur Frank Wang, DJI generated nearly $500 million in revenue in 2014, up from $130 million in the year before.

Through competitive pricing, great features and superior ease of use Chinese drone maker SZ DJI Technology Co Ltd has created an early lead in the U.S. commercial drone market as businesses turn to its cheap, light-weight flying platforms for a variety of business uses, notably from shooting films, mapping and site inspections.

Sixty-one of the 129 companies that received FAA approval to use unmanned aerial vehicles are using DJI drones, far ahead of its nearest competitor. Over 350 other companies, more than half of the 695 businesses pending approval, have applied to use DJI drones.

Shenzhen-based DJI, whose top-selling Phantom 2 Vision+ drone sells for around $1,200 in the United States, estimates that it already has about 70 percent of the commercial market worldwide and a much larger portion of the consumer market.

This is a major low to America’s aerospace industry whose technology in manned aerial vehicles is world leading. Cumbersome regulations by the FAA, specifically policies that banned commercial use while the rest of the world moved ahead are to blame.

Currently the U.S. market is being held back by FAA policy that restricts commercial drone flights to line-of-sight operations at altitudes of 500 feet (152 meters) or less. These rules are slowing efforts by e-commerce giants Amazon.com and Google Inc to develop high-tech drones capable of delivering packages over long distances.

Until the FAA does a radical policy shift its unlikely large U.S. aerospace companies will invest significantly in commercial drones, putting American industry at a competitive disadvantage for years to come.