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An iPhone 6 Hype Reality Check

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The internet was abuzz today over star Apple analyst Gene Munster’s forecast for the iPhone 6. Munster is known to have a great read on Apple and we thought it worthwhile to point out a few interesting items from his note this morning.

First, his assumptions about foreign market are probably on the money. But it isn’t because the device is ‘revolutionary’ – it’s because, finally, it has a large screen! In looking at phone trends over the last 5 years, screen size has done nothing but increase while Apple has stayed true to more or less the original sized screen.

We believe this will be the primary driver of the iPhone 6’s success and will account for the sales growth Mr. Munster predicted in his forecast. Apple is tapping into pent up demand for this format, plain and simple.

What we don’t believe is in Apple doing anything notably better anywhere else. Siri is still an also-ran to Google’s voice search and we view this is the biggest area for innovation as smartphones move forward. Screen real estate will stay approximately the same and even Samsung’s Edge line, with curved displays, don’t much change this.

People’s screen are already filled with their maximum surface area of apps and little will change here.

Google voice search changes this, but removing the need to interface with apps beyond one single app on the home screen. Siri does this to some extent too but Google’s product is significantly more powerful than Siri, having an intelligence beyond just ‘open app X’.

Google also has an advantage shown most clearly in the latest release of Android (5.0 Lollipop). The Cards concept, first surfacing a couple of years ago in Google Now, will be powerful for phone as they move forward into more general purpose computing devices.

Cards provide an intuitive way to multitask but are also very powerful when paired with Google’s big data engine. Google Now surfaces cards to remind you of things based on your location, the route you travel to work and other data driven events.

Apple has no such data backend, limited analytical capacity compared to analytics juggernaut Google and has not seemed to innovate much in this arena.

So while Munster may be correct in his sales forecast the cause is not as huge as he claims. Google’s Android system, increasingly fortified with difficult to replicate data and analytics driven services, will continue to maintain share and be a significant player in the mobile space.

Apple will continue to stick to its strengths of design, exclusivity and premium pricing and enjoy their captivity creating eco-system all the way to the bank.

But don’t expect anything to materially change here – each side has lots of weapons and a clearly defined strategy.

Who will get pinched? Expect Microsoft and Blackberry to be increasingly marginalized. Anyone not competing on one of these two platforms will be driven out of existence. Also look for the number of large, high end Android phone manufacturers to decrease. The market can’t sustain this many hardware companies running the same suite of Google software so expect this number to drop (Sony, LG we’re looking at you).

Microsoft Shows Sneak Peak Of Windows Phone 10

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And it lands dead on arrival. The stakes are high for the software company as it battles attacks on its home market of the desktop PC from fellow monopolist Google and their Chromebook offerings.

Having secured no share of the mobile market (less than 5% by generous estimates) Microsoft is looking to ‘universal apps’ to drive adoption of its new generation of mobile phone operating systems. Universal apps are designed to be written once and then run on desktops, tablets and smartphones. One of the key reasons blamed for Microsoft’s lack of progress in the mobile market has been a lack of compelling apps. Microsoft’s platform lacks users which means developers refuse to invest in building apps for it. Users refuse to adopt the Microsoft operating system because their favourite apps aren’t on it. It’s a viscous circle.

Microsoft’s newest offering, shown in a sneak peak to developers today, allows them the ability to write once and run on any Microsoft Windows 10 product. Which sounds like the perfect solution to all that ails the company from Redmond.

But despite technically being able to do as promised the preview shown today had two critical flaws.

First, it complicates user interaction. On each device there is a specific way users interact with apps – a keyboard on a laptop, fingers on a tablet and thumbs on a smartphone. The way each looks and responds is driven by the way you interact to it. Microsoft’s approach, shown today, combines user interaction into a one size fits all model. This means less pain for developers but more pain for users. Things, such as menus and buttons, are not where users expect them to be. Actions, like swiping and pinching, don’t work as expected either. This means its a major headache for users to, well, use the Microsoft apps.

Second, there is no getting around different screen sizes. Because of this developers must still create 3 sets of user interfaces for their apps, one for each of desktop, tablet and mobile. This still creates three times the work and so the savings in development time aren’t as significant as developers would like given the small (and shrinking) base of Microsoft devices.

Overall today’s preview can be viewed as a disappointment and does not bode well for the company in the near future. We’ll be covering this story as more previews hit in the coming months and look more into the impact this will have on Microsoft’s market position and business prospects.

TGIF: Google Has A Bad Day Amid A Bad Week

Search and mobile phone monopolist Google must be thankful it’s Friday. The company, already having a bad week due to the EU announcing its intent to prosecute the giant over abuse of dominant position in search, suffered another two blows before the week was through.

The Googley Googlers were greated not only by their private VIP buses this morning, but also by the French government looking for details on its magic search algorithm.

Specifically the upper house of parliament yesterday voted to support an addition to a draft economy bill that would require search engines to display at least three competitors on their homepage.

But it gets worse: they are also asking any search company to reveal the workings of their search ranking algorithms to ensure they deliver fair and non-discriminatory results. Given that Google has an approximately 90% share of the search market in France these amendments, although not naming any companies, are aimed squarely at Google.

But that wasn’t all that went wrong for Google today!

Senior VP for Search, Amit Singhal, attempted to argue that although Google is the most-used search engine, it is not abusing its dominant position. He then provided a number of pretty graphs that he claimed show competition was actually increasing.

One of those claims was that “when it comes to news, users often go directly to their favourite sites. For example Bild and The Guardian get up to 85 per cent of their traffic directly. Less than 10 per cent comes from Google.”

To which The Guardian’s audience editor, Chris Moran, tweeted: “Just to be absolutely clear … this is nonsense.”

Upon further review of his data, Singhal retracted his earlier claim (along with a similar claim about Yelp) because he had ‘forgotten’ to include Theguardian.com, the site’s main domain name, along with theguadian.co.uk (its secondary, UK specific domain).

Google no doubt heads into the weekend with a good deal on its mind, along with being thankful the week has come to a close.

Banker Admits Investment Banking Fees Terrible For Companies

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Ed Clark, former CEO of Canadian banking behemoth TD, stated this morning that he would not allow banks to ‘skin us’ on fees related the upcoming IPO of his company Hydro One.

The comment should give pause to any company working with investment bankers given Mr Clark’s former employer consistently ranked as one of the top investment banks in Canada and was a respected issuer of debt here in America.

“This thing will sell itself. I am not going to let them skin us,” Clark, chair of the Premier’s Advisory Council on Government Assets, said on Thursday about the government’s decision to initially sell a 15 per cent minority stake in the provincially owned distribution and electricity transmission company.

Mr Clark’s comment means the fees for the planned $2 billion-$2.25 billion IPO will not be the standard 4%-5% that underwriters extract from an initial public offering.

“If not, I will do it myself,” said Clark when presenting the advisory council’s final report on improving performance and unlocking value in Ontario’s electricity sector.

This is a valuable lesson to both company owners and investors alike. Etsy’s nearly doubling yesterday underscore that if a company is good and in demand, bankers do nothing but reap extraordinary fees for creating little value. In Etsy’s case you could even argue they destroyed it by pricing it far too low.

This is why Google did its own IPO when going public. It’s interesting that in a world where everyone tries to copy Google nobody has gone this route again. All the technology is in place and the process can be managed by ex-bankers to ensure success while avoiding the ridiculous fees they reap.

A lesson for investors is that the more bankers you see involved in a deal the less attractive the issue is. Clearly Mr Clark is of the same opinion and he’d be one to know.

Why American Auto Companies Shouldn’t Fear The Chinese

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News broke this morning that Chinese automaker Geely is coming to America. Eventually. With one single vehicle, a small crossover SUV based on a shared platform with Volvo. Production is slated to begin in late 2016 and the model could hit American shores in mid 2017.

American automakers are very aware of this and while it may come as a surprise to the public they would have seen this coming. The Volvo deal has been no secret since it was signed and it makes sense for a cheap Chinese car to enter the lucrative US market.

But American automakers should not be worried. They will have a host of competitive products in an industry with very little competitive advantage. They know this game and have been playing it for nearly 100 years and 3+ generations of executives.

And unlike throwaway items – napkins, party favours, fast fashion and consumer electronics cars must be built to last. The Chinese have a poor history with this, especially in industries that are well established and have sophisticated players with elaborate marketing machines and production facilities. As buyers of Chinese products know quality is not exactly job 1 for team China and this brand will be difficult to overcome.

Unlike the Japanese products that hit our shores in the 70s, Chinese products will face an extremely tough battle in a market that is well prepared for their arrival. Matters will be further complicated for the Chinese because the strategy shift to international markets does not align will with creating competitive advantage. Shifting into different geographic markets tends to reduce competitive advantage in cases where the product has no intellectual property protection. Vehicles are a textbook example of this sort of product, as opposed to the iPhone which enjoys both intellectual property and brand advantages already.

The Chinese will also need to figure out a dealer network, in an age where Americans will increasingly buy their cars online from the likes of Tesla.

China Has Built Military Airbase In South China Sea

Brand new satellite images published on Thursday show China has nearly completed building a military airstrip in the contested South China Sea’s Spratly Islands and is likely planning another. These hostile moves have been greeted with concern in the United States and Asia.

IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly said the March 23 pitcutres from Airbus Defence and Space showed work on the runway on reclaimed parts of Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands, which China contests with its neighbours the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

The magazine said images from earlier in March showed reclamation work on Subu Reef in the Spratlys creating landmasses that, if joined together, could create space for another 3,000-meter airstrip. This length of runway is well suited to military aircraft such as fighter jets, bombers and reconnaissance aircraft.

Other images suggested China was working to upgrade another airstrip to military length in the Paracel Islands further north in the potentially energy-rich South China Sea, a vital shipping route through which $5 trillion of trade passes every year.

The troubling report comes a day after the U.S. military commander for Asia, Admiral Samuel Locklear, said China, which claims most of the South China Sea, could deploy radar and missile systems on outposts it is building that could be used to enforce an exclusion zone should it move to declare one.

Senator John McCain, chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, called the Chinese moves “aggressive” and said they showed the need for the United States government to act on plans to move more military resources into the important Asian region and boost cooperation with Asian countries worried by China.

“When any nation fills in 600 acres of land and builds runways and most likely is putting in other kinds of military capabilities in what is international waters, it is clearly a threat to where the world’s economy is going, has gone, and will remain for the foreseeable future,” he told a public briefing in Congress.

The latest intelligence, of which the U.S. is keenly aware of, show the need for improved force presence in the region and increased cooperation. China’s ageing population, recent slowdown in growth and convoluted governance system create conditions that are textbook precursors to a diversionary war. Regimes in such a position will often start a war over a small, insignificant piece of land to divert the attention of the population away from troubles at home and rally the country around nationalistic values.

Given China’s tight censorship of media and limited personal freedoms it has all the tools to carry out such a war successfully.

Rare Oarfish Washes Ashore On New Zealand Beach

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An extremely rare Oarfish washed up on a beach at the mouth of Otago Harbour, New Zealand this morning. The impressive specimen was 3 metres long – medium sized for the species. Although rare other specimens have been known to reach lengths of over 8m.

The fish are long-distance ocean drifters and are usually found hanging in vertical position in the upper 300m of the water column. Healthy oarfish are known to wash up on beaches and are sometimes found near the water surface – so may be the origin of some “sea monster” myths.

Urban legend suggests Oarfish larger than 1.5m are known to shorten their length by biting off their tail but this is untrue. The fish has no teeth, making biting its own tail off impossible.

oarfish head

oarfish

Sweden Finally Willing To Question Wikileaks Founder

In what seems like an obvious move, Swedish prosecutors agreed late Thursday to interview Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. Mr Assange has long welcomed their questioning yet refused to leave his current residence, the Ecuadorian embassy, for fear of being extradited to one of the many countries looking to imprison him for his role in leaking secrets.

Assange has been holed up in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London since June 2012 to avoid extradition to Sweden, where prosecutors want to question him about strange 2010 allegations that he ‘raped’ one woman and sexually molested another. Mr Assange has not been charged in either incident, raising further questions as to the motives behind the extradition request.

While the allegations carry a salacious connotation, in Sweden they have very different legal meanings than here in the States. The allegations relate to not using a condom while having sex, a far more minor offense than the headline charges would seem to indicate. It would also be trivially easy to construct such fake allegations.

According to Assange’s lawyer, Thomas Olsson, Swedish prosecutors will now have to reach out to British and Ecuadorian authorities to request permission to conduct the interview at the embassy.

The prosecutors previously balked at coming to Britain to question Assange, raising serious questions as to their motives in the matter. It would seem like a straightforward solution to simply travel to London and conduct the interview there.

The reason for the sudden change of heart is that some of the alleged crimes will be subject to a statute of limitations in August 2015, according to a statement from Marianne Ny, the director of public prosecutions.

Ny attempted to explained the strange logic behind the Swedish authorities’ change of approach in her statement.

“My view has always been that to perform an interview with him at the Ecuadorian embassy in London would lower the quality of the interview, and that he would need to be present in Sweden in any case should there be a trial in the future,” Ny said.

“This assessment remains unchanged. Now that time is of the essence, I have viewed it therefore necessary to accept such deficiencies to the investigation and likewise take the risk that the interview does not move the case forward, particularly as there are no other measures on offer without Assange being present in Sweden.”

The Australian national has not been charged and denies the claims. Assange has said he fears Sweden would extradite him to the United States, where he could face the death penalty if he is charged and convicted of publishing government secrets through WikiLeaks.

Ecuador granted Assange political asylum in 2012.

Coast Guard Makes Record Drug Seizure

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Representatives from the U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Navy and Royal Canadian Navy gathered on a San Diego dock Thursday, to announce the largest drug seizure in agency history – more than 14 tons of cocaine. The announcement came as officers unloaded the seized shipment from the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Boutwell.

The drugs, with a nominal street value of $424 million, were captured in 19 separate seizures in drug transit zones near Central and South America.

The 28,000 pound seizure was so large that the drugs had to be taken off the ship by a crane and a conveyor belt.

The Coast Guard says the current fiscal year, which ends on Sept. 30, has already had the most seizures since 2009. The amount of cocaine taken for the fiscal year so far is reported to be over 28 tons, worth more than $848 million. Authorities say over 100 smugglers have also been apprehended.

The Coast Guard said in one incident, more than 10 tons of cocaine were confiscated from a single freighter in what is called the largest maritime drug interdiction in the eastern Pacific Ocean since 2009.

Safra Catz: America’s Best Female CEO?

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American female CEOs get a lot of hype. Marissa Mayer attracts attention for the smallest of moves (read: acquisition of Sumly, a mashup with no intellectual property, no revenue and no users). Meg Whitman, like Ms. Mayer, fusses over logo design choices while her company, HP, burns. Ms. Whitman’s tenure at Ebay marked the transition of the company from internet bellweather to also ran. Carley Fiorina, an unmitigated disaster of a CEO while at HP, is rumoured to be running for President and constantly in the news.

Lost in the flash of female celebrity CEOs is Safra Catz, co-CEO of software juggernaut Oracle. Known for keeping out of the headlines (aside from her massive compensation), Ms. Catz has presided over one of the most successful female careers in modern history.

Often cited as the highest-paid female executive, with a reported compensation of $51.7 million in 2011, Catz’s savvy dealmaking skills have led to acquisitions in the billions. Righthand woman to Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, she has overseen major M&A opportunities, including the $10.3 billion “hostile” acquisition of PeopleSoft and another $7.4 billion deal for Sun Microsystems.

Not only is she successful, she is also high in character. In Sept. 2013 Catz rejected her $717,000 bonus over Oracle’s poor financial performance. This stands in stark contrast to Ms. Mayer who once flew cupcakes on a private jet to a Sex and the City screening party.

America has plenty of fine female executives and its time the ones delivering results get the attention they deserve.

Why Loretta Lynch Isn’t The Attorney General Yet

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It has nothing to do with her and everything to do with our dysfunctional system of governance. Ms. Lynch is highly qualified, well regarded and yet sits in waiting due to petty political bickering. For context, Lynch’s wait to be confirmed is two times longer than the past 6 attorney generals combined! Eric Holder’s nomination by contrast took just 8 days.

After a five month wait the nomination has not even been heard and considered by our elected officials.

Specifically, Ms. Lynch’s nomination remains stalled while senators fight a partisan war over abortion, a fight that has nothing to do with her. Democrats object to a human-trafficking bill that contains the so-called Hyde Amendment, restricting government spending on abortion.

Rather than passing by acclamation, as it would have done without the abortion controversy, the bill has been blocked by a Democratic filibuster. Lawmakers are looking for ways around the impasse that will placate the pressure groups up in arms over the Hyde language. Until that agreement is reached, Mr. McConnell won’t bring up the Lynch nomination.

Regardless of your political leanings its clear Ms. Lynch should get immediate floor consideration. Write your elected officials and ask them just what they’re doing, because it certainly isn’t governing effectively.

Big Oil Is Losing Its Grip On The Auto Industry

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A revolution is coming and so far big oil doesn’t seem to see it coming. Producing oil via fracking has largely been credited with the recent downtrend in oil prices enjoyed by today’s motorists. But that’s not the whole story.

While rising supply has definitely been a factor, others are at play as well. Start with the fact that oil demand has remained flat for the last decade. This is largely thanks to federal regulation on engine consumption of gas and improving technology which has resulted in higher miles per gallon figures for a full decade now.

Then take electric vehicle, whose sales are up 4x in the last 4 years – a scary trend for any petroleum producer. Combine this with battery costs that are dropping just as fast as solar panel costs and you’ve got the making of a long term shift in demand away from fossil fuel powered vehicles in favour of electrics.

The icing on the cake is fuel cell vehicles, after years of disappointment, are finally rolling out of the lab and onto the streets to positive reviews.

While an abundance of oil may well be influencing prices the story isn’t just supply – demand is dropping too, at a faster pace than at any point in history. We’re on the verge of a seismic shift in consumption patterns that will forever change the way we think about driving. The gas station as we know it may be a thing of the past within 15 years.

Google Helps Homeless Take Cashless Payments

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No longer will people be able to walk past homeless asking for money and pat their pants saying “sorry, no cash!”. Google has teamed up with Real Change to offer a barcode based payment system for street vendors.

Starting yesterday homeless newspaper vendors in Seattle will offer increasingly cash-free customers the ability to pay for online versions of the newspapers they sell using their smartphones. Seattle’s Real Change weekly newspaper has partnered with Google to create an Android and iOs app that lets customers scan a barcode to purchase a digital version of the paper, priced at $2.99 (as opposed to the print price of $2).

The app took two years to develop, and was started by a Google employee who volunteered with the Real Change organisation after hearing of its problems keeping sales up in the face of street consumers who increasingly carry no cash or change. Google will not be profiting from the app.

Google PR flack Meghan Casserly said that the Real Change app represents the first implementation of a scan-to-pay app of this type in the United States. In South Africa the similarly-styled The Big Issue operates such a scheme.

Real Change founder Harris said “This app will help our paper survive in the digital age, when fewer people have ready access to cash and more people prefer to read news content on their mobile devices,”

Expect to see this technology in a city near you should it catch on.

Why Square Is Now Doomed

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Formerly red hot payments company Square is now in the payday-loans-for-small-business space, to the tune of $100 million. This is a troubling development that does not bode well for the company. We learned today that the company has issued over 20,000 payday style loans to small businesses who use its payment processing system. This is not a good sign for the once promising company.

There are 3 key reasons why Square is now in trouble.

(1.) Durable competitive advantage is obtained by focusing on narrow markets and dominating them. By getting into an adjacent market Square loses focus and makes it much harder for itself to gain competitive advantage in the payments space. The effects of this will be felt in both margins and market share in the coming months / years.

(2.) Square open itself to a host of issues by issuing high risk loans to small businesses, chief amongst them default. Businesses have plenty of avenues for credit already. Those that do not have credit are likely too risky to deserve it. Square is inexperienced in lending and is likely being too generous. A larger issue is the potential for accounting malfeasance this introduces. What was previously a relatively simple business is now complicated by the valuation of receivables issued to low quality borrowers. This makes valuing the company very difficult

(3.) Jack Dorsey is a celebrity CEO who has a track record of failing to deliver. Both these characteristics should give investors cause for concern. Strategic CEOs are capable of juggling both the vision of the business and the operational details to deliver results. Dorsey seems incapable of doing both yet notoriously stretches himself thin.

These factors, combined with huge players like Apple getting into the payment space paint a bleak picture for Square going forward.

The United States Is Losing The Drone War

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Ever heard of DJI drones? No? Well 70% of the American drone market has. Founded in 2006 by Chinese entrepreneur Frank Wang, DJI generated nearly $500 million in revenue in 2014, up from $130 million in the year before.

Through competitive pricing, great features and superior ease of use Chinese drone maker SZ DJI Technology Co Ltd has created an early lead in the U.S. commercial drone market as businesses turn to its cheap, light-weight flying platforms for a variety of business uses, notably from shooting films, mapping and site inspections.

Sixty-one of the 129 companies that received FAA approval to use unmanned aerial vehicles are using DJI drones, far ahead of its nearest competitor. Over 350 other companies, more than half of the 695 businesses pending approval, have applied to use DJI drones.

Shenzhen-based DJI, whose top-selling Phantom 2 Vision+ drone sells for around $1,200 in the United States, estimates that it already has about 70 percent of the commercial market worldwide and a much larger portion of the consumer market.

This is a major low to America’s aerospace industry whose technology in manned aerial vehicles is world leading. Cumbersome regulations by the FAA, specifically policies that banned commercial use while the rest of the world moved ahead are to blame.

Currently the U.S. market is being held back by FAA policy that restricts commercial drone flights to line-of-sight operations at altitudes of 500 feet (152 meters) or less. These rules are slowing efforts by e-commerce giants Amazon.com and Google Inc to develop high-tech drones capable of delivering packages over long distances.

Until the FAA does a radical policy shift its unlikely large U.S. aerospace companies will invest significantly in commercial drones, putting American industry at a competitive disadvantage for years to come.

More Teens Are Vaping Instead Of Smoking

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E-cigarettes have arrived in the life of the American teenager. Usage of the devices among middle and high school students tripled from 2013 to 2014, according to federal data released on Thursday, with the share of high school students who use them at 13 percent nationally. This number is more than traditional cigarettes.

The dramatic rise along with a substantial increase in the use of hookah pipes, led to 400,000 additional young people using a tobacco products in 2014. About 25 percent of all highschoolers and 8 percent of middle schoolers used tobacco products in some form last year.

Among high school students e-cigarette use is growing rapidly, while the use of cigarettes and cigars, is declining.

The numbers were a surprise and put policy makers into uncharted territory. The FDA took its first step toward regulating e-cigarettes last year, but the process is slow with habits forming far faster than rules are being written. Because e-cigarettes are so new, little is known about their long-term health effects, leaving regulators lacking the data they need to make effective policy choices.

The silver lining in the new data is that the share of high school students who smoked traditional cigarettes declined substantially, to 9 percent from 16 percent, and use of cigars and pipes slowed too. This suggests that some teenage smokers may be using e-cigarettes to quit.

Smoking is the single biggest cause of preventable death in America, killing more than 480,000 Americans a year. Most scientists agree that e-cigarettes, which deliver the nicotine but not the dangerous tar and other chemicals, are likely to be far less harmful than traditional cigarettes.

HBO Wants Pirates To Up Their Game

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You would assume HBO would be upset at the latest leaks of mega-show Game of Thrones. And they are. But not for the reason you think.

After episodes leaked online last weekend, millions of unauthorized BitTorrent downloads ensued. Yet HBO seems more concerned about “dozens” of people who streamed the show via the Twitter-owned Periscope app, a platform hardly known for its video quality.

Relative to past piracy incidents HBO’s response was relatively calm, with the company saying it was “actively assessing” how the breach had occurred. However, an event from another unexpected quarter elicited a much more strongly worded response.

But Australian news outlet Mumbrella reported that in the wake of gazillions of weekend BitTorrent downloads, literally “dozens” of people live-streamed the first episode of Game of Thrones to their friends as it aired in Australia.

Their platform of choice was Twitter’s Periscope app, which allows anyone to point a smartphone at anything and stream that content live to the world. Twitter was quick to respond, saying Periscope would terminate the user accounts of anyone “determined to be a repeat infringer.”

Considering the extremely low number of reportedly poor quality streams and the unstoppable piracy extravaganza already underway days before, it seemed unlikely the story would gain much traction. But for reasons best known to HBO, the company has now issued a more strongly worded statement on the Periscope streams than it did for the torrent leak on Saturday.

“We are aware of Periscope and have sent takedown notices,” an HBO spokeswoman confirmed in a statement. But then the twist.

“In general, we feel developers should have tools which proactively prevent mass copyright infringement from occurring on their apps and not be solely reliant upon notifications,” HBO added.

Does HBO have a certain May 2 event on its mind?

It’s difficult to know the media giant’s strategy, but neither BitTorrent nor Periscope appear to have hurt the Game of Thrones premiere. Despite four episodes already being widely available online, Sunday’s opener proved to be a series-best in the United States with 7.99 million viewers, once again showing that piracy does not hurt sales and instead helps them.

What’s likely is that HBO has something more on its mind: the May 2nd Mayweather fight.

HBO and rare partner Showtime will be charging a colossal $89.95 for a PPV pass, 40% more than the previous record set for a Mayweather fight in 2013. In addition, there won’t be an easy way to stream the event as live sports streaming sites are notoriously unreliable when compared to bittorrent.

One thing’s for sure: you can expect a lot more than “dozens” to point their periscopes and meerkats at the biggest fight in boxing history.

Blueberries May Help Fight PTSD

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Blueberries have long been deemed a superfood but new new research shows they may be a powerful weapon in the fight against post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

About 8 percent of Americans suffer from PTSD at some point in their lives, which is caused by either emotional or physical trauma. It’s estimated that PTSD afflicts up to 20 percent of veterans. Right now the most effective treatments for PTSD are drugs known as selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors or SSRIs – that is, medications that boost levels of serotonin, a neurotransmitter associated with mood disorders. These medications are not known as the most effective and researchers have been looking for something better for some time now.

The latest findings, indicate that blueberries may be a helpful alternative, at least in rats. Experiments conducted by Philip Ebenezer at Louisiana State University involved rats which developed PTSD after being (deliberately) terrified by cats.

The researchers found that rats who were fed blueberries following their traumatizing experience had notably higher serotonin levels than rats fed a blueberry-free control diet, suggesting a better recovery. If blueberries have similar effects on neurotransmitter levels in human beings, they may help alleviate the problems of the severely traumatized.

One cup of blueberries per day was the human adjusted amount of the berry needed to produce the same effect in people.

Worst May Be Over But Tough Times For Russia Ahead

Vladimir Putin welcomed the ruble’s rebound and banks’ stability, saying that Russia is coping with “difficult economic conditions.”

Yet even with an on again off again cease-fire in Ukraine and stabilizing oil prices, the central bank predicts that the economy will shrink as much as 4 percent this year.

Good news? Putin seems to think so. The deluded de-facto ruler of Russia even went so far as to say the sanctions are an effective tool for improving Russian competitiveness.

“We have to use sanctions to move to a new level of development” by steps such as import substitution and promoting local industry, Putin said on a television call-in show Thursday. “We shouldn’t expect an end to sanctions, because it is a political, strategic issue for some partners, containing Russia.”

While the ruble strengthened below 50 against the dollar on Wednesday it plunged past 70 last year.

Top Russian officials are sticking to the script, passing off strangely optimistic forecasts as welcomed good news.

Economic growth may pick up as soon as the second half, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Tuesday. Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said April 8 that predictions of Russia’s economic demise are proving to be “exaggerated.”

The reality is that the turn for the better has yet to manifest itself in any key economic indicator. Gross domestic product shrank 1.9 per cent in the first two months from a year earlier. GDP rose 0.6 percent in 2014, the slowest pace since a contraction in 2009. That compares with growth that averaged about 7 percent during Putin’s first two terms as president.

New ISIS Threats Show Caliphate In Decline

ISIS continues to inflame the international community, recently threatening to carry out a second 9/11 and but analysts say these provocations are meant to be diversions to their followers, as well as Western nations. The reality is that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is actually losing territory.

Clinton Watts, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, says that on the surface “they’re still appearing to deliver a success”. But the message has shifted slightly and notably

“The story isn’t about them losing ground in Iraq, the story is ‘ISIS destroys historic sites.’ Or ‘Now ISIS threatens the U.S.’ — meanwhile, they’re getting turned back” from cities they captured last summer, he says.

In recent months, coalition forces have evicted ISIS militants from cities such as Kobani, Syria and Tikrit, Iraq.

“If they capture headlines, you get the sense that they’re growing their caliphate, but at the moment, they’re not growing their caliphate,” says Rex Brynen, a political science professor at McGill University.

Boasting about demolishing pre-Islamic antiquities in Iraq and changing the message from bragging about territory captured to inciting supporters around the world to commit terror exhibits all the signs of classic diversionary tactics, used to distract followers from the grim realities on the ground.

While ISIS still poses a significant threat to Western nations its clear they are suffering from the coordinated strikes which have unfolded over the last few months.

Cirque du Soleil Rumoured To Be For Sale

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Cirque du Soleil, the company credited with bringing life back into the circus with its unique combination of dance, gymnastics, digital media and advanced technology to create captivating experiences, could be for sale.

Reports indicate a deal has been reached to sell the company to American private equity firm TPG Capital and China’s Fosun for an undisclosed amount. Guy Laliberté, Cirque’s charismatic founder, is tipped to keep a 10 percent stake in the business.

According to the CBC/Radio-Canada, an official announcement will be made in the coming days.

The sale brings up the always touchy issue of foreign ownership of national darlings, with Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard asking Laliberté to keep the company headquarters in Montreal. “I want to tell him that for Quebecers, for the government and for all political parties represented here, it is very important not only that the headquarters remain in Montreal, but that the creative activities should also remain in Montreal,” said Couillard.

Cirque du Soleil is based in Montreal and was founded Guy Laliberté, Gilles Ste-Croix, and Daniel Gauthier in 1984.

Slack Raises $160 Million at $2.8 Billion Valuation

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Slack, the red hot Vancouver-based business communications company, raised a new $160 million round. The investment features a number of heavyweights, such as Horizons Ventures, Digital Sky Technologies (DST Global), Index Ventures, Spark Capital, and Institutional Venture Partners (IVP) with the participation of past Slack investors including Accel Partners, Andreessen Horowitz, The Social+Capital Partnership, Google Ventures, and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.

Speculation had the company being valued at 2.6 billion, with rumours that co-founder Stewart Butterfield would step down from his CEO role. This latest round brings the company’s total investment to $340 million.

Slack now has 750,000 daily active users, with 200,000 of those actually paying.Since celebrating its first birthday less than a month ago the company has added over 250,000 new users.

Butterfield is the entrepreneur who previously founded Flickr, which he sold to Yahoo in 2005 for a reported $35 million. Slack was launched by Butterfield’s Tiny Speck, a computer game startup he founded in 2009. Most of the leadership at Tiny Speck came from Ludicorp which was responsible for the creation of Flickr.

“We take a very long view of both the opportunity before us and the company we want to build. We’re still at the beginning of a major transition in how people communicate and work together,” Butterfield said in a statement.

Navy To End Manned Fighter Jet Programs

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The secretary of the US Navy, Ray Mabus, has said the F-35 Lightning II “should be, and almost certainly will be, the last manned strike fighter aircraft the Department of the Navy will ever buy or fly.”

Speaking at the Sea-Air-Space 2015 conference on Wednesday, the secretary said he will “appoint a new Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Unmanned Systems” and “a new office for unmanned, in all domains – over, on and under the sea and coming from the sea to operate on land”.

The thinking behind the move to umanned is simple: “with unmanned technology, removing a human from the machine can open up room to experiment with more risk, improve systems faster and get them to the fleet quicker.”

There’s also the “New modeling and simulation capabilities [that] allow us to try new concepts without bending steel,” Mabus said. “They allow us to look at things like asymmetrical concepts without going through the tortuous, sometimes years-long acquisition process.

The US Navy is already well on the path to being fully unmanned. Mabus said the Close-In Autonomous Disposable Aircraft (CICADA) “can be made with a 3D printer, and is a GPS guided disposable unmanned aerial vehicle that can be deployed in large numbers to ‘seed’ an area with miniature electronic payloads, such as communication nodes or sensors.” It’s clear the secretary wants more of the same as time goes on.

The F-35’s overdue, over-budget status is likely an equally key driver of the Navy’s decision. “Too many new assets are mired in outdated bureaucratic practices that were developed for another era. As we enter the age of cyber, unmanned systems and advanced manufacturing, we cannot allow these overly complex, form-over-substance, often useless, and too often harmful, practices to slow or prevent development of some game changers, while simultaneously giving our potential adversaries the competitive advantage.”

“We have bound ourselves with rules and requirements that have nothing to do with the ultimate outcome of getting something to the warfighter and everything with protecting bureaucratic fiefdoms.”

India Fears Billionaires Bearing Gifts

India seems to be much less enamoured and much more suspicious of American tech billionaires – especially ones bearing gifts.

Facebook’s thinly veiled trojan horse Internet.org suffered a major blow on Wednesday when significant Indian partners Times Group, NDTV and Cleartrip.com all pulled out of the initiative citing net neutrality concerns.

Facebook’s initiative seeks to use donations to fund drone based internet access for poor, remote populations of developing countries.

The catch is that users will only be able to access a small list of pre-approved sites which are hand selected by Facebook. As can be imagined, Facebook is one of those sites.

“As for the Times of India itself, the group commits to withdraw from internet.org if its direct competitors—India Today, NDTV, IBNLive, NewsHunt, and BBC —also pull out,” Times group said in a statement. “The group also encourages its fellow language and English news publishers—Dainik Jagran, Aaj Tak, Amar Ujala, Maalai Malar, Reuters, and Cricinfo to join the campaign for net neutrality and withdraw from zero rate schemes.”

This response comes after a backlash in the country against schemes that offer ‘free’ internet but limit access to certain sites.

Since the first scheme, Airtel Zero, was offered by Airtel India’s telecommunications regulator Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has received over half a million emails protesting the negative impact this would have on users of the internet.

For what most Americans would consider to be a developing nation to take such an enlightened stance on this serious issue to liberty and freedom is refreshing. Perhaps we should be more critical when our ruling billionaire class comes to us bearing ‘gifts’.

World Cyber War Heats Up

New evidence uncovered by Kaspersky Labs shows some of the first documented group on group attacks by state sponsored hacking teams.

The report, released Tuesday, documents two Asian based teams targeting each other using sophisticated attacks and malware. The findings are uncommon in the world of cyber espionage.

Traditionally, state sponsored attack groups like China’s Unit 61398, APT30 or America’s Equation Group target strategic infrastructure, political networks or multinational corporations that control state or military secrets.

These attacks are often figured out and can result in real world damage, such as the loss of key fighter blueprints to China or the destruction of Iran’s nuclear centrifuges Israel.

But in its report Tuesday, Kaspersky observed the first known attack on each other by rival cyber armies.

The company observed the Naikon group, which is believed to be affiliated with Malaysia and takes a particular interest in hacking targets related to the search of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 being hacked by a new group – The Hellsing Group.

The Hellsing Group responded to phishing emails by the Naikon group and proceeded to infect them with a sophisticated backdoor package. This backdoor, and related variants, has been observed attacking the United States, The Philippines, India and other ASEAN member countries.

Kaspersky refused to speculate on the origin of the Hellsing Group, instead pointing out the name references a Japanese manga cartoon and the group appears to operate in the GMT +8 or GMT +9 timezone.

Attacks like these show just how ‘hot’ the cyber battlespace is becoming and highlights the difficulties in tracing attacks back to specific state actors. This trend is expected to continue as small nations who cannot afford expensive fighter planes and battleships increasingly invest in online warfare systems where they see better return on investments.

Major Changes Coming To Google

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This week the European Union’s competition commissioner announced it had taken the first steps toward fining Google for abusing its dominant position in search.

Specifically the EU Commission believes the company has abused its dominant position in the markets for general internet search services by systematically favouring its own shopping comparison product in its general search results pages.

Not only could Google face a fine of up to $7 billion it could also have to change the way it displays search results to ensure it does not favour its own products over those of competitors.

This is bad news for Google shareholders who could be reminded of Microsoft’s lost decade of share price appreciation due to the impact of its antitrust probe.

msft

The results for Google could be much worse.

Google has spent the last 5+ years building its ‘vertical search’ business, where it shows what people are looking for vs links to sites that have what people are looking for.

It’s made acquisitions in restaurant reviews, travel and product search while building weather, FX calculators and numerous other ‘answer engines’ on its own. This has been a major focus within the company and is a key part of its strategy moving forward.

The EU has just signalled that this strategy will need a major rethink, with the distinct possibility that the company cannot display its ‘answers’ results above those of the competition. This could represent a staggeringly large amount of wasted resources should the EU prevail.

But it gets worse for Google.

While announcing the results of their probe and decision to move forward to penalize Google, the EU also opened another probe into Google’s abuse of dominant position related to its Android operating system.

Android represents another key pillar of Google’s strategy and is key to the company’s future. It’s strategy is to give the operating system, which powers over 1.6 billion phones worldwide and controls over 60% of the market, and in return earn money from the use of its search engine.

The company has engineered the product to be extremely difficult for rival search engines – Yahoo to Duckduckgo and notably 3rd party toolbar providers – to gain a foothold.

Specifically Google disallows the automatic removal of Google search by an app – users must go through a variety of tedious settings to make the changes and even then can only choose from a pre-approved list of search providers (some of which are Google partners and effectively Google search!).

The only companies in a position to modify the search function of Android in an economically viable way are mega corporations like Samsung and Google gives them considerable incentive not to do so using both carrot (big money kickbacks) and stick (lack of support for hardware).

It is likely that the EU’s android probe will result in the same outcome as its probe of search.

This should terrify Google shareholders.

More Research Shows Steaming Is Good For Your Health

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Whether you call it a steam bath, sauna or just steaming there is mounting evidence to suggest exposure to hot steam is great for your health.

The latest data comes from, you guessed it, Finland! Specifically Dr. Hassan Khan and a team of researchers from Finland found that men between the ages of 42 and 60 were significantly less likely to suffer from Coronary Heart Disease, Sudden Cardiac Death and and Fatal Cardiovascular Disease if they partook in frequent steam baths.

They found that both the weekly frequency and the amount of time spent in the warm, moist environment contributed to positive health. Men who bathed more than 4 times per week and for between 11 and 19 minutes showed the least incidence of health issues relative to others in the study.

The research was conducted over twenty years and observed the health trends of over 2300 men. While the researchers are unsure of the exact cause of the improved health, they suspect the high temperature and moisture improve bloodflow which in turn has a number of positive health benefits.

Their results can be found in the April edition of the JAMA Internal Medicine journal.

Apple Is Buying 36,000 Acres Of Forest To Do What?

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The world rejoiced this morning as Apple triumphantly announced they were buying 36,000 acres of “forestland” to preserve it.

But the reality is that this is not pristine forest but rather timberland. Timberland, a favourite investment of endowments, pension funds and dubious Chinese listed companies, is there for the sole purpose of harvesting.

Apple plans to “sustainably harvest” the forest and use the material in its packaging.

The land consists of two tracts in Maine and North Carolina. They will be managed by The Conservation Fund, a nonprofit dedicated to environmental causes. The timberland is part of an estimated 45 million acres of private forest in the U.S. that are “in danger of being lost to development”.

Which means harvesting them for use as packaging material doesn’t count as “development”. Right.

In addition to Apple other companies will also be able to buy pulp from these forests as well.

A less hyperbolic and more sober assessment of the announcement was offered by Greenpeace. Daniel Brindis, a senior Forests Campaigner with Greenpeace, stated that “the working forest model, in which trees are harvested with an eye toward the long-term economic well-being of the forest, are generally speaking an improvement over clear-cutting — but that doesn’t mean they’re a panacea.”

“There are a lot of elements about what makes forest use responsible,” he continued, and simply purchasing forestland doesn’t necessarily mean a company (or in this case, a nonprofit) will manage it correctly.

Perhaps Apple can use some of that $100 billion stashed offshore to keep two eyes on the forest and not one.

Mexico On Alert As Radioactive Material Iridium-192 Stolen

Mexico issued an alert late Wednesday in 5 states after deadly radioactive material was stolen from a truck this week. The interior ministry said iridium-192 had been stolen from a truck in the southern state of Tabasco.

According to authorities “This source could cause permanent injuries to the person who handles it or who has been in contact with it for a brief time (minutes or hours)”

Mexico issued the alerts for Tabasco and the nearby states of Campeche, Chiapas, Oaxaca and Veracruz. Federal police, army and navy were also placed on alert according to sources.

This is far from the first incident of radioactive material being stolen inside Mexico. In 2014, another shipment of iridium-192 was abandoned in a stolen truck near a Mexico City suburb. In 2013, a group of robbers were hospitalized after they had been exposed to cobalt-60. The highly radioactive material was stolen near Mexico City, causing the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United States to raise an alert until the stolen material was found.

In many of the cases the thieves did not know what precisely they were stealing and it remains to be seen if this case is similar. The material stolen could not be used to make a nuclear weapon though it could be used in a crude improvised explosive device to create a ‘dirty bomb’.

Former Fed Chairman Joins World’s Most Levered Hedge Fund

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The NYT today reports that former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will join the world’s most leveraged hedge fund, Citadel Advisors, as, well, an ‘advisor’.

Mr Bernanke will “offer his analysis of global economic and financial issues to Citadel’s investment committees. He will also meet with Citadel’s investors around the globe.”.

Citadel is best known for High Frequency Trading, a dubious tactic that earns the firm billions by stealing a small amount from each trade of average American investors. The firm was infamously profiled in Michael Lewis’ book ‘Flash Boys’ and has been under scrutiny from regulators and the general public ever since.

The move by Mr. Bernanke raises serious questions about the revolving door between government and industry. Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson faced similar concerns when he left Goldman Sachs for public service, as did Mark Carney, another Goldman alumni, who is now head of the Bank of England.

Mr. Bernanke’s choice of firm is also curious as Citadel has shot to prominence after the 2008-2009 bailouts of American banks. Calling the bank “not systemically important”, Mr Bernanke argued that it did not need regulatory oversight by the Federal Reserve and therefore would not be a conflict of interest with his previous employer.

The chart below shows the amount of leverage of the largest hedge funds. Does Citadel really look like an institution that is not systemically important?

Hedge Fund Leverage